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WEEKLY SUMMARY 38

Bulgaria

  • During the past period (16-22.009) in places in the southern regions (Haskovo, Pazardzhik, Chirpan, Karnobat, Plovdiv, Sandanski, Sliven, Burgas) precipitation of economic significance between 15-20 l/m2 fell and provided the necessary moisture for the germination of the sown in agrotechnical term, winter rapeseed.
  • During the next seven-day period, an improvement in the agro-meteorological conditions is predicted – significant precipitation is not expected and the conditions will allow to finish the harvest of the late spring crops, to carry out pre-sowing tillage of the areas intended for sowing with wheat and barley and to apply mineral fertilizers, Source: NIMH.
  • Today, feed wheat and corn quotations in Bosnia and Herzegovina are down by $ 2,3, and bread wheat also loses $ 2,5 in value.
  • The sunflower also loses between 2,5 and $7,5 according to the different parity, with fears of a possible end of the Grain Corridor fueling the import of Ukrainian seed again.
  • Rapeseed, which is a direct function of MATIF, rose in price the most due to yesterday’s catapulting of quotations. Here once again we want to draw everyone’s attention to the strong volatility of this culture.
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WEEKLY SUMMARY 38

Europe

  • Against the backdrop of an increase in soybean production at major producers, Oil World (Germany) experts in September raised the global soybean oil production forecast for the 2022/23 season to 61.63 million tonnes, with increases in particular for China, Argentina and India . The increase in soybean oil production offsets the decrease in sunflower oil supply from Ukraine due to the military aggression of the Russian Federation. At the same time, China and India are actively replenishing their stocks with cheaper palm oil. The low sunflower harvest in the EU and Ukraine will in the near future lead to an increase in the prices of sunflower oil, which is of better quality and lower price than soybean oil.
  • The price of European canola continues to recover after uncertainties affecting the export of Ukrainian oilseeds to the European market although, with a large global supply of canola/canola this season and relatively inelastic demand, ultimately the soybean market will have a greater influence on rapeseed prices this season, especially as a record soybean crop is expected in Brazil (Conab consultancy pegs production at 150.4 million tonnes). On the other hand, EU rapeseed processing rose 60% in August to 1.83 million tonnes as rapeseed availability rose seasonally following the continental harvest, while sunflower processing fell by 10%.
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WEEKLY SUMMARY 38

America

  • CBOT grain prices were moderately mixed after an uneven round of technical maneuvers spurred in part by crop pressure coupled with a strengthening US dollar to fresh 20-year highs (following the Fed’s statement indicating modest growth in spending and output). Corn prices fell 0.9 percent and soybeans fell 1.2 percent, while wheat prices fared better amid concerns that Russia plans to step up its war effort in Ukraine.
  • According to agricultural consultancy Safras & Mercado, Brazilian wheat production should total 10.93 million tonnes in 2022, as four states (Parana, Sao Paulo, Goias, Bahia and the Federal District) could increase production in a good season for local farmers. The new forecast points out that Brazil is on track to produce all the wheat it needs in the next 10 years or less, as the government has predicted, but for now the South American country remains a net importer and buys most of its wheat from Argentina, but that may change soon, as this year’s production will be 41.2% higher than 2021’s 7.745 million tonnes.
  • Persistent drought-hit regions in southwestern China extended power restrictions on Monday as they grapple with declining hydropower production and rising electricity demand. State meteorologists issued a “red alert” for the 11th consecutive day on Monday as extreme weather continued to wreak havoc on power supplies and damage crops. The drought has already “severely affected” mid-growing rice and summer maize in some southern regions.
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WEEKLY SUMMARY 38

Black Sea Region

  • Russian consultancy SovEcon noted that prices in the Russian domestic market are falling as supply increases rapidly, particularly for low-protein wheat. “Farmers are becoming concerned about silo availability: the harvest is huge, sales are slow and the sunflower and maize harvest is approaching,” SovEcon said, adding that it had seen such a situation for the first time since the 2017/18 season. The reaction of the Russian grain market was uncertain after President Putin’s speech ordering partial mobilization, with offers of wheat 12.5% ​​in seaports holding steady at around $320/t FOB.
  • The Ukrainian market showed a mixed bag of reactions to Moscow’s statements, with some trade sources expressing uncertainty about what will happen next, given that the Ukrainian grain export corridor agreement expires on November 20. Some sources say that regardless of what the Russian president says, grain exports from Ukraine will continue, with or without guarantees.